The Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs can advance to the NBA's Conference Finals round with wins on Friday over the Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Timberwolves, respectively, as the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder are waiting the winners of these two series. One or both of the Western and Eastern Conference Finals could be cemented Friday night depending on the results, with the Spurs looking for a road win in Game 6 while the Cavs can win their series in front of their home crowd. The Spurs just beat the Timberwolves by 29 points in Game 5, while the Cavaliers used a strong third quarter to take down the Pistons in Game 5.
Here, we'll take a deep dive into the NBA best bets for Friday's two Game 6 matchups using the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times. The model has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. So let's dive into the best NBA bets today with all odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Check out the FanDuel promo code before placing bets on the NBA Playoffs on Friday.
NBA Playoffs picks, best bets for Friday, May 15
- Pistons-Cavaliers Over 209.5
- Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 assists
- Timberwolves money line
- Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 rebounds
Pistons-Cavaliers Over 210.5
After a 117-113 Cleveland win in Game 5, four of the first five games of this series have gone Over this line, and 10 of the Cavs' 12 postseason games have cleared this line as well. Cleveland is now 48-46 to the Over this year, including the postseason, while Detroit is 44-50 to the Over. Given how this series has gone thus far, it's not surprising to see the model favor the Over, which hits in roughly 58 % of simulations.
Donovan Mitchell Over 3.5 assists
Mitchell averaged 5.7 assists per game this regular season, but he hasn't been as potent distributing the rock this postseason. He's gone Under 3.5 assists in four of five games this series against the Pistons and went Under five of seven times against Toronto in the first round. The model thinks Mitchell will clear 3.5 assists on Friday, though, with a projection of 4.9 assists.
Timberwolves money line vs. Spurs
This has been a very eventful series, with the Timberwolves winning two close ones, the Spurs getting two blowout wins -- including Game 5 -- and star San Antonio center Victor Wembanyama getting ejected in Game 4, which Minnesota won. The action returns to Minnesota for Game 6, where the Timberwolves will need to win to keep their season alive. The SportsLine model is leaning toward the home side here as they win in 50% of simulations at notable plus money.
Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 rebounds
Gobert has again been a menace on the glass, with seven double-digit rebound performances in 11 postseason games this year. Gobert has cleared 8.5 in three of his five games against the Spurs this series, and he's averaging 9.0 rebounds per contest thus far. The model projects Minnesota's big man to pull down 11.1 rebounds with his team's season on the line.
